आरआईएल Q4 परिणाम आज: खुदरा, दूरसंचार विकास पर राजस्व, EBITDA में सालाना 10% की वृद्धि होगी; O2C का कारोबार और मजबूत होने की संभावना

RIL Q4 Results Today: Revenue, EBITDA to rise 10% YoY on retail, telecom growth; O2C biz likely stronger

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is set to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24 (Q4 FY24) on April 22. Alongside the results, the company's board will consider and approve a dividend for the fiscal year 2023-24. Analysts and brokerage firms are optimistic about Reliance Industries' performance, expecting robust earnings growth driven by its telecom and retail businesses, as well as a rebound in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment. Brokerage firm Elara Capital forecasts an 11% year-on-year (YoY) growth in consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Reliance Industries. This growth is expected to be led by a 4% standalone EBITDA increase in refining, petrochemicals, and exploration and production (E&P), a 42% growth in retail EBITDA, and an 11% growth in digital services' (telecom) EBITDA. Elara Capital estimates revenue to be ₹2,32,627.3 crore, EBITDA at ₹42,523.4 crore, and net profit at ₹20,780 crore for Q4.

Equirus Capital anticipates an improvement in profitability driven by better O2C earnings. The firm expects strong performances from Jio and Retail, with steady realization in E&P. Key areas of interest include the margin outlook in refinery and petrochemicals. Equirus Capital expects a 14% rise in net profit and a 9.9% increase in EBITDA YoY. ICICI Securities predicts a significant increase in the O2C segment's earnings quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), with an estimated $1/bbl QoQ improvement in gross refining margins (GRMs). The firm also expects better petrochemical spreads and higher refining throughput in Q4. Reliance Jio Infocomm (RJio) is expected to deliver nearly a 2% QoQ rise in EBITDA, with RIL’s retail EBITDA growing by 1.4% QoQ. Overall, consolidated EBITDA may jump 5% QoQ, with net profit rising around 6% QoQ in Q4 FY24E, according to ICICI Securities. JM Financials expects Reliance's Q4FY24 EBITDA to rise by 3.6% QoQ to ₹421 billion, driven by an 11.8% QoQ growth in O2C EBITDA.

This growth is attributed to higher GRMs, although petrochemical margins are expected to remain subdued. E&P EBITDA is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, while digital EBITDA is expected to grow by 2.6% QoQ. Retail EBITDA is likely to grow by only 0.4% QoQ. Nuvama Institutional Equities expects an 8% YoY surge in EBITDA (+2% QoQ) for RIL, with strong performances across all verticals partially offset by weak O2C. O2C EBITDA is expected to fall by 8% YoY (6% QoQ) due to weak refining and petrochemicals. Retail EBITDA is expected to remain strong, up 28% YoY and 1% QoQ, while Jio's EBITDA is likely to surge 13% YoY and 4% QoQ. Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects consolidated EBITDA to remain flat YoY at ₹38,800 crore, with standalone EBITDA at ₹18,260 crore (up 1% YoY). The firm also expects production meant for sale at 17.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) (flat YoY), and EBITDA/mt at $91 (-10% YoY). Key areas to monitor include further clarity on ₹75,000 crore announcements in the new energy business, growth in retail store additions, and any pricing action in telecom.

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